Global Prediction Markets Update: April 2026 Trends and Insights

GLOBAL PREDICTION MARKETS OVERVIEW

As of today, prediction markets are tracking 1973 active markets with a total trading volume of $4,165,608,479. The landscape is dominated by political markets, with significant interest in speculative scenarios for the 2028 US Presidential Election. Entertainment and sports also show dynamic activity, reflecting both current cultural interests and future event speculations.

HIGHEST VOLUME MARKETS

The highest volume markets are primarily political, with a particular focus on the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market asking if Oprah Winfrey will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination leads with a trading volume of $48,993,499 and a probability of 0.9 percent. Close behind is the market on whether LeBron James will win the 2028 US Presidential Election, showing a 0.7 percent probability and a trading volume of $48,570,116. Other high-volume political markets include Chelsea Clinton, Andrew Yang, and Bernie Sanders, each with probabilities hovering around 0.7 to 1.1 percent.

These volumes indicate a strong interest in speculative political outcomes, suggesting that traders are keen to engage with long-term political forecasts. The high trading volumes reflect both the public's fascination with celebrity involvement in politics and the unpredictable nature of future political landscapes.

NOTABLE PROBABILITY SHIFTS

In entertainment, casting predictions for a new Miami Vice project have seen notable shifts. Glen Powell's probability of being cast is at 13.0 percent with a trading volume of $5,808, marking a significant interest. Ryan Gosling follows with a 9.0 percent probability. These shifts may be driven by recent media speculation or industry rumors, reflecting how quickly entertainment markets can react to news cycles.

In economics, the market on how high unemployment will get before 2030 shows a 28.0 percent probability. This reflects ongoing concerns about long-term economic stability and labor market trends.

NEW MARKETS WORTH WATCHING

Recently added markets provide fresh insights into various sectors. The sports market on whether the Los Angeles Lakers will win the 2026 NBA Finals shows a 2.3 percent probability with a considerable volume of $14,750,835, indicating strong interest in future NBA outcomes. In technology, the market on whether Meituan will have the best AI model by the end of April 2026 is worth monitoring, though it currently holds a low probability of 0.1 percent.